The double-deck promotions in the domestic market under the electric wire market experienced the “coldest season†in history
The longest and most anticipated National Day & Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-2017 is over halfway. Now where are your coordinates? Hong Kong and Macau, Singapore and Malaysia? Looking at the good rivers and mountains in the motherland? Doing back the dog eggs and Cuihua? Or is it like the data people we persistently adhered to, working hard on the frontline of overtime? Carefully, you may have discovered that this year's National Day holiday is a bit special. Brushing friends and friends not only have mountains and rivers, Meng adorable pets, corn gourds, but also Ovey cloud network daily appliance sales report!
The progress of the National Day holiday has already exceeded 50%. The daily monitoring data of the AVC line shows that the tone of the national offline market during the National Day promotion period this year has basically settled.
National Day promotion period offline market cold
Despite the fact that promotional sales were still eye-catching, sales data did not meet expectations. According to the monitoring data of AVC's 4,500 daily offline monitoring outlets, from September 27 to October 3, 2017, China’s one to three-tier cities’ offline consumer electronics retail market, in addition to the purifier, The scale of the full-category market declined in comparison with the same period of last year, and most categories fell by more than 10 percentage points.
From September 27 to October 3, 2017, the retail sales of sub-categories in the retail market under the national wire in the same period
(excluding three or four markets)
National Day data reveals that home appliance market brands are accelerating
According to the day-to-day monitoring data of Ovid Cloud Network, the concentration of home appliance brands in the National Day market has further increased. From the concentration data of the top3 and top5 brands in each category, it can be seen that the more sluggish the market is, the greater the importance of the brand, and at the same time, it also shows from another perspective that companies lacking brand awareness or lack of brand influence Enterprises will be even more struggling.
From September 27 to October 3, 2017, the retail sales of sub-categories of TOP brands in China under the national cable market
The brand performance of sub-categories, the market concentration trend of the traditional main brands is even more obvious.
The share of TOP brand retail sales and the year-on-year change in the retail market under the national wire between September 27 and October 3, 2017
At the same time, the influence of foreign brands in the traditional peak season cannot be underestimated.
For example, Sony TV's share of monitored retail sales rose by 5.4% year-on-year. For the first time in five years, it became the No. 1 brand in retail sales for the National Day season; in addition, AO Smith maintained an absolute leading market in both water purification, electric heating, and thermal water heater market sectors. Shares; Siemens in the field of refrigerators and washing machines, despite the scale of the decline caused by the decline in the market, but still rely on product and brand advantage to maintain the top two positions in the market; like Matsushita washing machines also showed a slight increase of 0.7%.
Five factors cooling the National Market
The cold weather in the National Day celebrations is mainly due to the following reasons:
(1) Pre-holiday promotional closures and double 11's double attack. First of all, the promotion closure represented by 909 and brand day advance overdrawn the market. In addition, due to rising panel prices and rising prices of white raw materials and other reasons, household electrical appliance prices have remained high, so that consumers expect the double 11 increase. Under the double attack, the promotion period of the National Day is facing tremendous growth pressure;
(2) The lagging impact of property purchase restrictions. The year of 2016 is known as the most stringent regulation in the history of the property market. The regulation and control efforts have been continuously upgraded, the intensity of first-tier cities has been continuously increased, and the second- and third-tier cities have restricted purchases and restarts, resulting in a significant decline in real estate transaction volume. As we all know, when the performance of the real estate market acts on the home appliance retail market, there is a certain lag effect. Now that the lag effect has emerged, it has significantly affected the market in the second half of the year;
(3) The population flow promotion season is transformed into a tourism season. Today's National Day plus 8 days of the Mid-Autumn Festival will undoubtedly provide people with more convenient travel conditions. According to data from the National Tourism Administration, there will be 710 million person trips during the 8 days long holiday, which is an increase of 10% from 2016. It is reported that on October 1, the country received a total of 113 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Behind consumers' passionate travel is the loneliness of home appliance stores.
(4) The company's promotional resources have been tightened. The decentralization of offline promotions, the gradual decline of the status of the traditional offline node, the company's expectations for the National Day promotional period has been lowered, so some companies have reduced promotional spending. In addition, the continuing rise in raw material prices in the white-water market has also exerted pressure on operating profits of enterprises, and is also one of the reasons for companies to tighten their resource input.
(5) E-commerce diversion. Although the growth bonus of the e-commerce market has been continuously declining, it cannot be overlooked that it is still the backbone of the scale growth of household appliances in various channels. The diversion of the e-commerce market is also an important reason for the declining market under the promotion period this year.
Although sales are unsatisfactory, there are many highlights in the market
During the National Day promotion period, the average price of all categories rose across the board, including the reasons for the increase in raw material prices caused by companies to adjust their price strategy, but the main reason was the product structure adjustment.
Average price and year-on-year ratio of sub-products in the retail market under the national wire between September 27 and October 3, 2017
The average price of the main household electrical appliance enterprises rose in different ranges. The average price of Hisense TV rose by 15.5%, Skyworth's average price rose by more than 20%, the average price of Haier refrigerators and washing machines rose by 13.9 and 18.9% respectively, and the average price of Little Swan washing machines rose by 12.8%. Gree's average air-conditioning price rose 9.4%.
Behind the rise in average price, product upgrades are the main driver. Product structure and configuration upgrade is also a major highlight of this year's National Day promotion. The data shows that the retail penetration rate of smart and UHD color TV reaches 98% and 92% respectively, the penetration rate of curved TV reaches 16%; the air-cooled refrigerator has full control of the market, the penetration rate of retail sales is as high as 97%, and the frequency conversion and smart refrigerator Permeability also reached 84% and 24%, respectively, while the proportion of retail sales of 601-700L large volume refrigerators also exceeded 21%; drum washing machine retail accounted for nearly 78%, of which washing and drying one continuous high-speed development momentum, retail sales Accounted for nearly 32%, 8.1KG + large-capacity washing machine retail accounted for as high as 56%, smart washing machine accounted for 51%; inverter air conditioner continued penetration, accounting for nearly 87% of retail sales, intelligent air conditioner accounted for more than 50%.
The Enlightenment Behind the Cold Market
First, market competition is further concentrated in leading companies. Leading companies have scale advantages and industrial chain pricing rights. Their marketing capabilities, resource integration capabilities, and cost-digestion and transferability are strong. At the same time, competition among leading companies has become increasingly fierce. In addition, the future market situation of a number of long-tailed enterprises will become increasingly stretched;
Second, the rapid transition from price war to value war. From the data point of view, the average price of all categories of household appliances during the National Day Promotion Period has risen without exception. At the same time, the average price of leading companies has also risen. The entire household appliance industry is abandoning the traditional price war and quickly moving toward value. Battle transformation. This is a new strategic issue for the entire industry. How our home appliance companies adapt to this transformation will have a far-reaching impact on future industry development direction and marketing model;
Once again, the current home appliance market is in a critical period of product quality, technology, and configuration upgrades. The demand for upgrading and upgrading has made the market's requirements for quality and brand awareness unprecedented. Household appliance companies should step up the upgrade of service and business concepts, transform from operating products to business users, grasp high-end users at the same time, grasp high-end channels, promote new sales, increase the consumer experience of terminal channels, and increase the sales capacity of terminal sales personnel;
Finally, from the cold weather during the National Day promotional period, we can basically speculate that in the fourth quarter of this year, there will not be too much surprise performance. This basically determines the “high and low†status of the home appliance market in 2017.
In addition, it should be noted that although the urban market is sluggish, the online market is still the best channel for development in the home appliance market. During September 27-October 3, Jingdong and Tmall’s home appliance sales increased overall by 30. During the period of -50%, this shows that e-commerce channels remain the fastest growing industry channel.
In addition, due to the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival 8 days long holiday-driven return of the tide, and the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival in the traditional status of the rural areas, all give the home appliance market sales will bring significant support, so Ovid cloud network to determine the vast three or four line market There is still a certain amount of room for growth in household electrical appliances. The above two factors can, to a certain extent, make up for the inability of the offline urban market to exert negative influence on the scale of the industry.
In summary, Ovid Cloud Network (AVC) expects that in 2017 China's home appliance omni-channel retail market will realize retail sales of 786.7 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year (this data coverage category see below). The development between the various categories continued to show an unbalanced trend. The competition in the home appliance market gradually shifted from the decisive battle room to the decisive battle kitchen. For specific forecast data, please refer to the figure below.
2017 China Household Appliances Terminal Retail Market Forecast (100 million yuan)
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