Looking at the development of China's LED industry from the MOCVD market situation
Recently, I interviewed Jim Jenson, vice president of Veeco, a LED epitaxial equipment manufacturer in Shanghai, China, focusing on the development of MOCVD equipment in the current global and Chinese LED market, and the changes that the LED industry will face in the future.
Jim Jenson believes that in order to make the LED market show explosive development, the only way is to reduce the price of LEDs and stimulate the market. The most direct and effective way is to continue to reduce the MOCVD equipment and technology. LED production costs.
MOCVD's highly growing main battlefield - China market
In response to the recent growing Chinese market, Jim Jenson revealed that this market will still be very strong in 2010 and 2011. In 2009, the number of MOCVD in mainland China has grown considerably. In 2010, Chinese manufacturers continued to purchase new ones. Orders from MOCVD machines, Taiwanese manufacturers continue to add orders. He believes that the number of MOCVD machines installed by various manufacturers in China in 2010 will be between 100 and 150 units, depending on the delivery speed of each manufacturer and the capital allocation and capacity planning time of the LED manufacturers themselves.
He used the K465i's new MOCVD machine as an example. Many customers like this product and placed orders very early. Veeco held many k465i machine exhibitions in New Jersey, USA. Many Asian customers came to the United States to look at products and research products. There are many manufacturers in mainland China.
Based on the current rapid growth of the Chinese market, these newly purchased machines will accelerate the cost reduction of LED products, as long as the market demand can be stimulated, and various incentives and policies to encourage LED lighting products are helpful. In this way, the demand for the LED lighting market can be truly developed.
As for the LED backlight market in mainland China, the expected growth scale in the future is also very impressive. In particular, many brand manufacturers have been actively deploying, but in the short term, they will not see obvious benefits from local LED manufacturers in mainland China.
In addition, this time in the semiconductor equipment exhibition held in Shanghai, China, you can also see the LED equipment machine made by local manufacturers in mainland China, but mostly based on lower-order equipment, MOCVD machine can only be used as R&D. use.
Difference between Taiwan LED manufacturers and Chinese mainland LED manufacturers
At this stage, the Chinese mainland government is actively introducing subsidy policies to attract Taiwanese manufacturers to set up LED epitaxial factories in mainland China to subsidize half of the cost of purchasing MOCVD machines. Jim Jenson believes that this is a good thing to make the LED market bigger. He also analyzed the differences between Taiwanese LED manufacturers and Chinese mainland LED manufacturers. The most important place is still in technology.
He pointed out that in terms of employee skills, R&D team technology, manufacturing team, management team and intellectual property rights, there are many differences between cross-strait manufacturers. Through joint ventures, there will be more success than mainland Chinese manufacturers. opportunity. Compared with other foreign-invested companies that emphasize technical power in other countries, the local market in China will emphasize the promotion and sales of the local market. In the short term, there will be no export to foreign countries, because local LED demand exceeds the supply of local manufacturers. The number of LED chips is still imported.
In the long run, LED manufacturers in mainland China need to be strengthened in many places, including the quality, performance and cost of LED products. The difference in the application side is also very noteworthy. At present, the Chinese market is still dominated by small-size LED backlights and LED lighting products. Some lower-quality products are not easy to enter high-end LED applications.
MOCVD rapid import plan
He emphasized that Veeco provides Raipid Start rapid import planning for LED epitaxial customers, and provides tools for MOCVD machine tools to reduce the introduction time of LED epitaxial manufacturers. The current Veeco MOCVD machine introduction time is about 3 to 6 months.
Differences between LED lighting products and LED backlight products
Jim Jenson said that LED epitaxy is a lighting product or a backlight product. The difference lies in the special formulation. In different MOCVD reactors, special levels are used for extension. At this stage, LED-backlit LCD TVs are very hot. Manufacturers in South Korea, Japan, China, and Taiwan are actively investing in mass production of related components. LED backlights are still in large-scale production scales by South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese manufacturers. Many new The production capacity is prepared for the LED backlight market.
However, the LED lighting market is also driven by the policies of various governments, and there is also room for growth. Jim Jenson agrees with the government's incentive policy to replace traditional lighting with energy-saving lamps such as LED lighting, which has increased the demand for LED chips for lighting. LED epitaxial manufacturers and LED packaging manufacturers have also cooperated to launch luminous efficiencies exceeding 100 lumens per watt. Products, these technological advances, can not only reduce the cost of LED lighting, but also reduce the growth of LED backlight modules, both markets will have a good development.
LED product price decline
After the LED epitaxial factory bought the Mocvd machine, although the depreciation is 5 years, the price pressure will emerge in a year. This is because LED manufacturers' products are maritime problems, whether they are supplied to the LED lighting industry or supplied to the electronics industry as small-size backlights and large-size backlights. The export status of different LED products will affect the price of LED products.
Especially in the case of MOCVD machines actively purchasing, the number of MOCVD in the overall market has increased, the production capacity has also increased substantially, and the price decline is natural. Under the shock of this market, many companies will successfully rise. . Jim Jenson believes that just as for the industry, the price of the product will fall, which will be a better result.
Jim Jenson revealed that the company is currently developing a new MOCVD machine with better yield and output, which is four times that of current products, but will be launched in a few years. Veeco will provide a blueprint for product planning, allowing customers to purchase MOCVD machines in accordance with blueprints and production schedules.
From the standpoint of Veeco, it is hoped that the MOCVD machines purchased by customers will be able to maximize the benefits over the life of the product, reuse the capacity of existing products as much as possible, reuse as possible, and then proceed to the next For generations of products, Veeco is willing to grow with customers and have confidence in future products.
Views on the future MOCVD market
Jim Jenson pointed out that Veeco's customers are generally very satisfied with the company's new product K465i. At this stage, Veeco is strengthening their MOCVD equipment capacity from 45 units in Q1 in 2010 to 70 units in Q2 in 2010. At the time of Q4, it can reach 120 units in a single quarter.
In other words, in 2010 Veeco had the opportunity to achieve an annual production capacity of 300 MOCVD, but this does not mean that there are so many machines in actual shipments, depending on the market situation and the situation of LED manufacturers.
Jim Jenson estimates that the company's MOCVD mass production capacity in 2011 can be at least as large as Q4 2010, with a total annual production capacity of approximately 480 units.
Editorial point
From another point of view, the production cost of LED chips will continue to decline. From 2009 to 2013, in just four years, the improvement from MOCVD equipment is bound to have a certain degree of impact. The cost of LEDs can be Hope to decline further.
The LED epitax industry is relatively high in labor costs compared to other semiconductor industries. To have lower costs, it is necessary to increase the yield of LEDs produced by production equipment, so that downstream processes will also benefit.
In order to improve the production capacity of LED chips, what manufacturers can do is to control the dynamic output of gases, adjust the chemical concentration ratio, and optimize the temperature environment. Equipment advancement is especially important.
At present, it seems that the LED production process is becoming more and more automated. In addition to reducing labor, the size of the mainstream epitaxial wafer used will change in the future. These technological changes will affect the rise and fall of the LED industry. Major epitaxial manufacturers frequently purchase MOCVD, and Veeco and other equipment manufacturers continue to produce mass production and increase production information. However, other information such as sapphire substrates have not been added. I don't know if there will be insufficient supply of materials such as sapphire substrates in the case of expansion of major manufacturers this year.
What is 5G CPE?
Definition of 5G CPE
CPE stands for Customer Premise Equipment. The so-called front end refers to the equipment in front of the customer's terminal equipment. When we use Wi-Fi, if the distance is far, or there are more rooms, it is easy to appear signal blind spots, resulting in mobile phones or ipads or computers can not receive Wi-Fi signals. The CPE can relay the Wi-Fi signal twice to extend the coverage of Wi-Fi.
What are the benefits of CPE?
Through the following comparison table, it is not difficult to understand the technical advantages of CPE products:
* Currently, the global 5G FWA service is mainly in the Sub-6GHz band, with only the United States and Italy supporting the millimeter wave band.
* 5G CPE integrates the low cost of Wi-Fi and the large bandwidth of 5G, combining the advantages of the two to form a strong complement to traditional fiber broadband.
The relationship between 5G, FWA and CPE
It can be said that FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) will be the most down-to-earth application of 5G technology. FWA business plays a key role in enabling "connecting the unconnected." FWA is a low-cost, easy-to-deploy flexible broadband solution. Compared with wired access technology, FWA has been an ideal choice for deploying broadband in many countries and regions because it does not need to obtain rights of way, dig trenches and bury cables, and drill holes through walls. The development of 5G technology is further promoting the development of FWA.
FWA services (including 4G and 5G) have reached 100 million users. FWA is no longer a niche service; The FWA industry as a whole has been supported by numerous suppliers. Why is that? In the 5G era, 5G CPE receives 5G signals from operator base stations and then converts them into Wi-Fi signals or wired signals to allow more local devices to get online. For operators, the initial user penetration rate of 5G is low, and the investment is difficult to realize quickly; The CPE business can use the idle network to increase revenue for operators, so major operators vigorously promote the development of 5G CPE.
FWA services can be used for both home (To C) and business (To B), and customers have different requirements for CPE devices when using FWA services in different application environments, resulting in consumer grade 5G CPE and industrial grade 5G CPE (similar to home routers and industrial routers).
In 2020, the global market size of 5G CPE will reach 3 million units, and it is expected that in the next five years, the market size of 5G CPE will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 100%, reaching 120 million units in 2025, with a market value of 60 billion yuan. As an important market for 5G CPE, China's 5G CPE market size will reach 1.5 million units in 2020 and is expected to reach 80 million units in 2025, with a market value of 27 billion yuan.
The difference between 5G CPE and other devices
CPE can support a large number of mobile terminals that access the Internet at the same time, and the device can be directly inserted with a SIM card to receive mobile signals. CPE can be widely used in rural areas, cities, hospitals, units, factories, communities and other wireless network access, can save the cost of laying wired networks.
A Router is a hardware device that connects two or more networks, acts as a gateway between networks, and is the main node device of the Internet. Routers use routes to determine the forwarding of data. If it is a home router, it does not support a SIM card slot, and can only receive signals by connecting to optical fiber or cable and then convert it into WI-FI to provide a certain number (several) of terminal devices to surf the Internet.
Industrial 5G CPE is equivalent to 5G industrial routers, and the technology of the two is not very different. On the one hand, the industrial 5G CPE converts 5G network signals into WiFi signals for transmission, and on the other hand, the data received by the WiFi network is converted into 5G network signals for uploading. In addition, industrial 5G CPE generally supports routing functions.
5G CPE trends
According to a research report, after evaluating the products of some mainstream 5G CPE suppliers, many institutions believe that the development of 5G CPE products will continue in two aspects: one is to support mmWave and Sub-6 GHz at the same time; Second, the design will pay attention to humanized operation and installation. The industry development trend will accelerate the demand for 5G in the medical, education and manufacturing industries due to the epidemic, and 5G FWA will promote global 5G CPE shipments.
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