It is said that the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2018 should be retreated in advance. Is this true? "Recently, the reporters of China Auto News have encountered many people who are instigated by this rumor, especially power battery companies. To promote new energy vehicles, China has implemented a corresponding subsidy policy. Many in the industry believe that if the subsidies Withdrawing the slope ahead of schedule, the power battery industry will suffer from the pressure of two squeezes.What the hell is this all about?
â– Transfer of subsidies for early advancement plans announced this month
In 2015, the four ministries and commissions of the State issued the “Circular on the Financial Support Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles 2016-2020â€. The subsidy standard for 2017-2018 will decrease by 20% on the basis of 2016, and the subsidy standard for 2019-2020 will be based on 2016. On the decline of 40%. The "Circular on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Popularization and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued in 2016 stipulates the central and local subsidy standards and caps for various types of vehicles from 2019 to 2020.
In 2018, it was supposed to be a calm year. Why did the sudden rumor that the subsidy would fall ahead of schedule? An industry insider who asked not to be named told the “China Automotive News†reporter that some power battery companies have made rapid technological advances and their costs have fallen drastically. The Ministry of Finance believes that if the current subsidy standards continue to be implemented, there may be subsidies that exceed the cost of batteries. The situation does not reflect the principle of subordination and support. Therefore, the early retreat of subsidies can both correct and reduce financial pressure.
Different versions of the subsidy early retreat program have appeared on the Internet. The initial version showed that: New energy vehicles with 150 kilometers of driving range no longer enjoy subsidies; subsidies for new energy vehicles with 150~200 kilometers of driving range are reduced by 44%; The subsidy for driving 300 km of driving range increased by 2% and 14% (300-350 km and over 350 km respectively); the subsidy standard was adjusted from third gear in 2017 to fifth gear (divided by driving mileage).
The latest circulated programs include a subsidy of 10,000 yuan for 150 to 200 kilometers, a subsidy of 25,000 yuan for 200 to 250 kilometers, a subsidy of 34,000 yuan for 250 to 300 kilometers, a subsidy of 45,000 yuan for 300 to 400 kilometers, and 400 kilometers. The above subsidy of 50,000 yuan. The energy density of the power battery is not less than 105Wh/kg, the subsidy coefficient of 105-120Wh/kg is 0.5, the subsidy coefficient of 120-140Wh/kg is 1, and the subsidy coefficient of more than 140Wh/kg is 1.1. The network transmission subsidy program also requires that the level of electricity consumption per 100 kilometers be increased by 10% compared with the current standard, and the upper limit of the unit battery subsidy for a pure electric passenger car is 1,100 yuan/kWh. The battery energy density of special vehicles is not less than 115Wh/kg, and the subsidy amount is 850 yuan/kWh. Corresponding requirements are also put forward for the power consumption and subsidy coefficients of special vehicles.
A car company official told the "China Automotive News" reporter, the subsidy early fall involved in a very wide range, the plan many times in the reasonable adjustment, advance the slope easily allow companies to be caught off guard, may give a transition period, but the transitional subsidies will (At the 2017 level) Discounted, specific standards are still being worked out. It is said that the plan for the early retreat of subsidies will be announced at the end of January this year and formally implemented on May 1.
â– Or will have a profound impact on the industry
What impact will the subsidy fall from the advance? Wang Pan, Vice President of Sales of Shenzhen BAK Power Battery Co., Ltd. believes that many rumors have caused wait-and-see status of OEMs, which may result in low overall shipments of power batteries in the first quarter of this year. Policy adjustments may involve the secondary development of products, which will have an impact on the inventory and cash flow of power battery companies.
Subsidy falling back in advance will certainly have a profound impact on the power battery industry. Zhong Mengguang, vice president of Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd., believes that it delivers a very clear signal that the pace at which companies fight to fight technology and fight strength is bound to accelerate, and companies that cannot keep up with the rhythm will be eliminated.
China's top-ranking power battery companies have invested a lot of manpower and material resources to conduct technological research and development. Only today's achievements and status can be achieved. Subsidies falling ahead of schedule will motivate these companies to further increase their R&D efforts and maintain their leading position. Judging from the early retreat of the rumors of subsidies, the policy is still tilted toward outstanding companies. For companies that rely on subsidies, the subsidy falling back in advance will make their hopes fall, prompting them to seek breakthroughs.
The early retreat of subsidies makes the cost of new energy vehicles relatively short-board, the industry competition will further intensify, cost reduction and efficiency increase become the only means for enterprises to increase market competitiveness, but also power battery companies should consider the most important issues. Under the background of accelerated subsidies for new energy vehicles, the industry's concentration will further increase, and backward production capacity will be eliminated.
â– There is still potential to reduce costs and increase efficiency
In the context of rising raw material prices, the early departure of subsidies is also a huge test for leading technology companies. They will be under pressure from both sides.
In recent years, the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material for power batteries, has continued to rise, rising from 120,000 yuan/ton to 170,000 yuan/ton, with no signs of falling. Ternary materials require the use of a large amount of cobalt, and China lacks cobalt resources. Production companies basically rely on imports. As the power battery shifts from lithium iron phosphate to ternary materials, cobalt prices have risen sharply. At various industry seminars, experts mentioned that the price of cobalt doubled in 2016 and will continue to rise in 2018.
Under the background of subsidy withdrawal, how much room for power battery prices can fall? Wang Pan told reporters that the main factors constraining the cost reduction are raw materials, especially cathode materials. According to reports, BAK Battery has been insisting on research and development of ternary material batteries for more than a decade, taking the 811 system path of high nickel and low cobalt, and reducing battery costs through technological advances and economies of scale, especially through optimized design and control of costs.
Zhong Mengguang believes that there are many factors that restrict the decline in the cost of power batteries, including battery design, large-scale production technology, management level, and raw material supply.
The battery cost is closely related to the design. Wattmar uses a large-capacity cell design scheme, which not only increases energy density but also reduces costs while ensuring safety. Wattmar also uses battery module standardization in its design to avoid redesigning each model, saving design time and cost, and reducing unnecessary costs by reducing the overlap of functions in the PACK system. Raising the level of automation in manufacturing can both improve product quality and reduce costs. As the machines replaced manual operations, the number of employees per production line was reduced from 230 to 25, and the artificial production cost of 1GWhPACK was reduced from 33 million yuan to 2.5 million yuan. “We have achieved high quality and high efficiency in automated production lines, improved product qualification rates, and reduced scrap rates can also significantly reduce costs,†said Zhong Mengguang.
According to reports, in recent years, Watermar has increased its investment in R&D, actively innovated, and promoted a gradual decline in battery costs by increasing product energy density, promoting technological advances, and economies of scale, etc., and realized each year from 2015 to 2017. The cost reduction of 10% to 15%. At present, the proportion of Wattmar power batteries in the cost of new energy commercial vehicles has dropped from about 50% to 30% to 40%.
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