TSMC released negative market signals, DRAM / Intel / Tesla has affected?
[Taiwan Semiconductor released negative market signals, DRAM / Intel / Tesla has affected? TSMC's warning cell phone / cryptocurrency market is weak, and capital expenditure growth is slowing down;
Will this affect the DRAM market?
Will Intel continue to supply Apple with desktop CPUs?
We all love Tesla (Model3)!
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC) said recently that due to the decrease in sales of mobile phones and cryptocurrency chips, it has lowered its future revenue guidelines and cast a dark shadow on the semiconductor industry, which has continued its negative news. At the same time, they said that TSMC’s capital expenditures in the next few years will remain flat between US$10 billion and US$12 billion.
This year, TSMC raised its capital expenditure forecast due to two one-time expenditures. Yesterday, we heard in the ASML report that TSMC had prepaid $300 million for NA tools. As the number of masks required increases, the cost of EUV masks also increases. TSMC has also spent an additional $500 million on mask production. However, this advance payment will not be immediately implemented into any new tools or capacity. It is only to ensure that TSMC can acquire the high-NA tool in the first place.
This also means that manufacturers of manufacturing tools such as AMAT, LCRX, and TEL will not receive more incremental revenue from TSMC. In fact, because the 10nm, 7nm, and 5nm processes are very similar, the reusability of devices between them is very high, reaching over 90%.
As the number one semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is not quick enough to advance EUV because EUV will not save costs in the short term, and its performance is not enough to cover the potential increase in earnings risk. However, when EUV is actually deployed (we think that TSMC is most likely to use EUV in the 5nm process), it will further reduce the expenditure on deposition & etching equipment, because the redundant tools needed for today's multiple patterning steps are converted to EUV. Will be further reduced.
TSMC's warning is not a good news for fab equipment tool makers (except photolithography and masking), and the slowdown in sales of encryption chips and mobile equipment may also cause the fab's equipment tool capacity to be tight. The DRAM demand has a certain negative impact.
The good news is that TSMC said that the automobile and the Internet of Things may bring more lasting demand than the "short-lived" currency encryption technology.
What does crypto chip and mobile phone sales mean for DRAM?
We are concerned that the weakness in sales of encryption and mobile chips mentioned by TSMC may cause collateral damage to DRAM and NAND. Since NAND demand is very flexible and has a certain depth of defense, we are not too worried about NAND, but DRAM demand is relatively more limited, and it is closely related to the needs of specific products.
In fact, everyone knows that the currency encryption chip is only a short-term boom, and the real trouble is the weakness of the mobile phone market. The cryptocurrency "bubble" is very similar to the 1997 "electronic pet" bubble. At that time, a large number of foundries were attracted by the fashion of electronic pets and expanded their production capacity. As a result, they were out of touch with the fundamentals of the chip industry. With the decline of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin, we expect the currency circle to revisit a similar historical trajectory. Late-stage miners will find that they do not even receive the cost of PC investment.
Capital expenditures return to lithography equipment
TSMC's comments and trends we have seen indicate that the reduction in the number of multiple patterning steps after the introduction of EUV has increased the percentage of lithography equipment (and related expenses such as masks) in overall fab equipment spending. The semiconductor industry began to spend more capital expenditure on photolithography, but the deposition and etching equipment spending did not slow down, because these manufacturing process steps still need a lot of investment.
Fortunately, because the memory chip does not use the most advanced lithography process, this capital expenditure will not be reflected in memory for a long time. In addition to the increase in lithography equipment spending, KLAC and other manufacturers that help monitor lithography processes will benefit in addition to ASML.
How long can Intel continue to supply Apple with desktop CPUs?
It is clear that TSMC has "locked" Apple's future mobile and tablet business, and Apple's desktop and notebook computer business will also bring more profits to TSMC.
Investors and the industry were "surprised" at Apple's ability to design laptops and desktop chips on TSMC's technology. This was surprising to us because it was not a "news" at all. As early as 2014, we I wrote several articles to discuss the possibility of Apple's development of PC chips, because we are very clear that the competitiveness of Apple's mobile chips designed to quickly surpass the desktop-class CPU.
We know that CPU can be completely summarized by the three elements of "price, performance and power consumption". These three factors are the core and soul of "Moore's Law". Under the promotion of Moore's Law, the three are improving at the same time. The current situation is very clear that Intel has lost (or voluntarily renounced) the leading position of TSMC and Samsung in the Moore's Law competition. TSMC's 7nm is just as good as Intel's 10nm process. However, TSMC is manufacturing 7nm devices. Where is Intel's 10nm process?
Apple’s strategy is simple. It just wants to maintain its lead in Moore's Law with the best combination of performance, power, and price. Intel once provided the CPU with the best power consumption and performance at a relatively high price, but now, both TSMC and Samsung can provide the same performance of the CPU.
In addition, Apple wants to gain architectural compatibility and software compatibility on mobile devices and desktop computing platforms.
If Intel doubles the bet and returns to Moore's Law, it may continue to keep Apple. Although Apple may be moving desktop products from the x86 architecture, they still need leading chip manufacturing processes. In addition to the desktop CPU, Intel can also provide OEM services for Apple's "A" series of processors. Apple can get the support of a chip foundry company in the United States. In contrast, Apple certainly does not want to be "also "Friends and friends" Samsung provides more business. However, the key to the problem is that Intel needs to catch up with Moore's Law and really provide Apple with OEM services.
No matter what, TSMC will not have any risks.
The highlight of the car - Tesla will lead the trend?
TSMC pointed out that the car is the highlight of the future. With the increasing number of automotive semiconductors, this has clearly become a long-term trend.
Tesla's latest Model 3 has 8 cameras, a large number of sensors, and a fully electronic glass cockpit (just as the aircraft industry transformed a few years ago). At the same time, it also has mobile LTE broadband real-time connectivity, and a large number of power semiconductors that make analog chip manufacturers happy.
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