In the IOT era, can this 106-year-old company successfully transform itself?
On June 15, 1911, a company called CTR was incorporated in New York. On February 14, 1924, CTR officially changed its name to IBM, the international business machine company.
In the stalls of this company's 20 consecutive quarters of decline, what should be paid attention to?
When you have a negative attitude toward IBM's biggest transformation since its founding 106 years ago, you have accepted the time window theory of speed as king. This theory is not surprising in the era of rapid development of Internet business models and innovative applications:
If all commercial competition is essentially time-competitive, then the speed of market expansion can really beat the opponent.
The single-point breakout of the business model has been tried and tested. For example, O2O, shared bicycles, shared charging treasures... "An entrepreneur broke through the window paper, and thousands of horses and horses rushed over the wooden bridge." As a result, the competition of the startup company became the competition of the capital group. At this time, you can only run hard, expand and expand... but this is not the way to innovate.
Whether an enterprise can move to the next stage depends on potential energy rather than expansion speed. "The wind will come and the pigs will fly." Chinese companies are good at taking advantage of the situation, but how to "let the pigs grow wings" to form their own potential energy, but it is the next stage of the watershed.
Potential energy determines the company's winning or losing, and determines the life of the company .After all, looking at business competition from a time-competitive dimension of a longer corporate life cycle, the hard part is not to win, but to become a century-old company. Entrepreneurial thinking is naturally not suitable for a century-old enterprise. If you don't go to the next stage, you won't understand the know how of a century-old enterprise transformation.
So, back to the 106-year-old IBM, what are the things that are worthy of attention or difficult to understand in these 20 quarters?
1. How do you understand that Buffett sells 1/3 of IBM stock?From the main machine to the Power mini-computer architecture, and then to the Gerstner period of transformation services, IBM's average transformation cycle is actually 10 to 15 years. The commitment cycle of IBM's transformation and investors is: from 2005 to the end of 2021. In this way, in the era of cross-border competition, IBM transformation has accelerated.
From this time dimension, it is too slow and too long for the stock market. Although Buffett calls himself a long-term investor, he sold a third of this year after holding IBM stock. After all, capital is profitable. The so-called long-term capital is far from the length of the company's life cycle.
Such a transition cycle needs to be re-examined from a 106-year-old enterprise with $80 billion in revenue and more than 300,000 employees. Under such performance, IBM's head Luo Ruilan was not stopped by the board of directors, at least from the side to prove the true attitude of IBM's attitude towards the transformation effect.
According to IBM's latest earnings report, cloud and big data businesses account for 42% of total revenue, and by 2021 may account for 60%-70% or even higher.
2. Is there a necessary connection between the SF bird roster and IBM transformation?The battle for the interface of SF's rookie in the past few days was actually a dispute over data, and it was a battle for the industry.
When Ma Yun no longer talked about the Internet subverting the retail industry, but changed the "new retail, new finance, new manufacturing..." this year, it also proved that the Chinese Internet companies are in the comfort zone to end the siege. The next stage of competition is Industry competition.
Industry leaders will not wait for subversion, industry cloud, industry big data, AI industry applications, become the focus of competition. From the early days of China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud, to SF Express's logistics industry cloud, Xingye several gold to build a financial industry cloud, Wanda and IBM to build a public cloud... More real economy companies realize:
In the era of cross-border, the real competition comes from the flank, not the traditional old rivals.
Entering the competitive period of industry competition, Internet companies rely on the expansion advantage of public cloud single point breakout, will gradually become a protracted war:
The second half of cloud computing is the industry cloud and hybrid cloud; the attributes of big data without industry can only be shallow data; artificial intelligence is not just playing chess or autopilot...
There is no sudden innovation. IBM's early business module was "software + hardware + services", and the current business module is "cloud + big data + cognitive computing." At that time, IBM realized that services could bring together several business modules, and now it is Cognitive Computing that can integrate new business modules. The business looks so different, but the driving force under the module is the industry. This is also the significance that IBM has been the first to industrialize AI in the financial, medical, and telecommunications industries.
3. Why did IBM enter the restricted area to acquire industry data companies?"In the new era of data-driven, the value of IT platform providers will be greatly reduced." This voice comes from Internet companies, so they are everywhere to attack the city, or how to have a rumor rookie dispute.
"We don't do data business, we don't compete with customers, we only do IT platform providers." Another voice comes from almost all IT companies except IBM, and some companies even explicitly put forward: don't touch the application, don't touch it. data.
IBM has gone through this step and has thought about it a few times:
The initial naive idea was that Power Server did cloud IaaS, IBM middleware did cloud PaaS, and later realized that scale up and scale out were two different workloads.
To this end, the acquisition of the public cloud enterprise SoftLayer, when IBM believes that the private cloud can use scale up, the public cloud uses scale out.
Later, IBM finally realized that the vast majority of workloads in the future are actually AI-driven workloads.
AI is so important, not only through the public cloud to obtain data tempering algorithms, AI's industrialization requires industry data, acquisition and cooperation is an inevitable trend for IBM.
In fact, the boundaries of this IT exclusion zone are blurring. For example, Microsoft's acquisition of linkedin and Office software SaaS is not as pure as IT platform providers.
4, AI force medical care, why not IBM advantage industry?As the single indicator that affects GDP the most, the weather is first valued by IBM. Only when the acquisition can truly have this data can it drive a variety of industry applications.
Then there is no medical industry in IBM's traditional four major industries of finance, telecommunications, retail and manufacturing. Why should cognitive computing be the first to start with medical treatment?
This is not because medical data is more standardized (in fact, financial data is more standardized), but because the gap between medical needs and effects is more obvious, and the ability to play AI is better. To this end, IBM not only acquired the medical data company, but also sought to cooperate with the Sloan Catherine Cancer Center and the MD Anderson Cancer Center. These two centers have more than 90% of the US intellectual property rights in the field of cancer, combining intellectual property with IBM Watson, which is the potential of IBM's application in the AI ​​industry.
On the other hand, from the perspective of US GDP contribution, the medical industry's GDP accounted for 18% of the financial rankings, the International Economic Cooperation Organization (IOP) was 10%, and China's only 6.5%. It can be expected that the proportion of China's medical industry will increase year by year, at least to the level of evaluation of the International Economic Cooperation Organization. Therefore, medical care is also a big industry.
5. Why does Wanda cooperate with IBM in public cloud?Recently, Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin pointed out in his speech at China University of Political Science and Law: Wanda's core point in building a century-old enterprise is to pursue long-term stable cash flow.
He believes that no matter how big the company's current sales and how much assets there are, the core question is whether you can see the cash flow in ten, twenty or thirty years. For example, when people were doing real estate in the 1990s, he thought of doing shopping. Now, Wanda wants to know how to consume people in shopping centers, theaters, tourism and sports events through IT means, and must build a platform for cloud + big data + AI.
As an industry enterprise, Wanda must choose an IT company with a sense of identity to cooperate in-depth - aside from the details, Wang Jianlin also wants to make Wanda a century-old enterprise, and on June 15 this year, IBM is 106 years old.
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